China and North Korea’s ‘friendship year’ need not be bad news for US allies

The 75th anniversary of Beijing-Pyongyang diplomatic relations comes as Seoul fears being left out in the cold by Tokyo’s overtures to North Korea
Given that it doesn’t make sense for Beijing to abandon Pyongyang or Seoul, China is more likely to play the role of mediator

Gagan Hitkari

Published: 9:30am, 5 Mar 2024

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Amid growing tensions on the Korean peninsula, China yet again finds itself at the centre of geopolitical uncertainties, this time as both a bridge and a moat between North Korea and the international community.

After a meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on February 16, there was a sense that both countries were increasing their cooperation in mitigating the Korean peninsula crisis. However, China’s close ties with North Korea in what the two are calling a “friendship year” complicates the situation and puts Beijing’s role in the spotlight.

This year marks the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and North Korea. The countries have vowed to cooperate in all areas including regional peace and stability. Recent North Korean media reports talk about the development of traditional bonds of friendship and cooperation as “demanded by the era” as well as the special Beijing-Pyongyang relationship “that cannot be wrecked”.

The Korean Workers’ Party plenum last December discussed the “dangerous security environment” on the peninsula with leader Kim Jong-un denouncing the US-led anti-communist conflict and advocating for closer relations with “anti-imperialist independent countries”. In this regard, growing ties with China are indicative of North Korean attempts to challenge the position of the US and its partners in the region.

Although China has reached out to South Korea about the tense situation on the peninsula, concerns are rising in Seoul about what the Beijing-Pyongyang partnership – which is expected to have “vibrant” exchanges – may entail. Adding to the anxieties is the possibility of North Korea and Japan forming top-level relations, as indicated by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in a statement which was well received by Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un’s sister and a deputy department director of the Korean Workers’ Party.

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While the US, Japan and South Korea have agreed on closer cooperation over the North Korean issue, the potential thaw in North Korea-Japan relations may lead to cracks in the trilateral alliance that Seoul fears could leave it worse off.

Given the current developments in the region, how China navigates its role in a complex security arrangement is pivotal for regional stability and peace. While North Korea would expect China to play the role of a loyal ally, it is highly unlikely that Beijing would isolate Seoul in the process. South Korea is a major trading partner of China and the two nations have interlocked supply chains. Isolating Seoul would risk trade disruptions that could severely affect China’s exports in the region.

On the other hand, North Korea has been China’s natural ally since the Korean war, with their security situations intertwined. Furthermore, the sanctions levied against Chinese companies by the European Union and the United States are likely to push China towards aligning more closely with the North Korea-Russia nexus as it feels singled out in a tense security environment.

In a scenario where abandoning either Pyongyang or Seoul appears to be off the cards, Beijing is most likely to play the role of mediator. Much like during the times of the Six-Party Talks, China is inclined to prioritise stability in the region. Beijing recognises the need for stable regimes to further its economic interests and hence it is likely to balance its way out of a crisis.

However, China’s support has undoubtedly often strengthened North Korea’s resolve. The era of growing cooperation between China and North Korea has the potential to strengthen the latter’s economy which, if left unchecked, could help boost its nuclear proliferation programme.

Although a nuclear weapons-wielding Pyongyang is Beijing’s problem as well, China is not likely to carry out any harsh measures against North Korea’s belligerence if it finds itself singled out by the US and its allies. Furthermore, any sanctions levied against North Korea will largely be rendered ineffective as Pyongyang will find alternative paths through the channels of Beijing and Moscow.

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The US and its allies are facing a severe challenge in the form of the reinvigorated China-North Korea alliance. A major point of concern for the trilateral alliance would be deciding how to approach this predicament. Harsh measures and retaliatory confrontations might only succeed in hardening North Korea’s shell and making China more hostile.

In such a scenario, it is highly implausible that peace and stability could be fostered in the region. On the other hand, cooperation could be a more feasible way forward.

Washington should therefore approach collaboration as two separate issues, working closely with Seoul and Tokyo to ensure that neither of its allies feels threatened to the extent that it may lead to fractures in the alliance.

In parallel, the US should actively pursue cooperation with China with regard to North Korea. While being wary of the threats the China-North Korea alliance could pose, Washington must be open to working closely with Beijing, while prioritising their common interests in the region.

Closer collaboration with China may well push North Korea towards dialogue and cooperation in the near future. Washington must welcome any signs of collaboration and diplomatic advances that might emerge as a result of such an arrangement.

Gagan Hitkari is a PhD candidate at the Department of East Asian Studies, University of Delhi, India