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China-Philippines ties on ‘brink of total breakdown’: unpacking the collapse
- Their churning South China Sea quarrel has now reached ‘boiling point’ – and Filipinos are demanding action
Fast forward 16 years and those 80 support pillars are now gone, torn down after the ambitious Northrail scheme was abandoned amid allegations of corruption and mismanagement. Yet 200km to the northwest, a new structure is taking shape – one with very different intentions.
What began as a story of infrastructure cooperation has morphed into an epic tale of betrayal and confrontation, the once-chummy relationship between Manila and Beijing giving way to escalating geopolitical rivalry. The rise and fall of those Northrail pillars now bookend a new, more ominous chapter.
“I think relations are the worst in recent memory because the hostility and aggression of China at both the strategic and tactical levels are palpable,” former senator and retired naval officer Antonio Trilllanes told This Week in Asia.
Indeed, ties are “at their lowest ebb and on the brink of total breakdown”, according to Teresita Ang-See, founder of Kaisa, an organisation representing Chinese-Filipinos that aims to foster understanding and tolerance between cultures.
“Never have the churning waters reached boiling point as now,” she said.
Chinese coastguard personnel wielding axes and machetes then boarded the Philippine boats, trashing equipment, seizing phones and firearms, and towing the vessels away – a shocking escalation in the bitter territorial dispute over the strategic waterway.
The Philippine military was quick to condemn China’s “barbaric actions” in a post on the X social media platform.
As the two sides trade accusations, the risk of further miscalculation and escalation remains ever-present in the strategic waterway.
But this latest incident marked a significant escalation, with the Philippine troops under strict orders not to open fire or fight back even in the face of brazen aggression.
![The dilapidated but still active Philippine Navy ship BRP Sierra Madre is seen grounded on Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. Photo: AP](https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/canvas/2024/06/28/2ae2f048-7ee0-4ef1-b0d7-c8dfafb7c05c_78353323.jpg)
China “would like to push us to fire the first shot”, Philippine Navy spokesman Commodore Roy Vincent Trinidad told local media on June 20, three days after the incident.
“It’s clear, China wants to grab our island territories and maritime zones,” retired Supreme Court associate justice and maritime rights crusader Antonio Carpio told This Week in Asia, calling the June 17 incident a significant escalation.
“This is a higher level, it’s the first time they’ve boarded our auxiliary ships,” he said.
![Rodrigo Duterte (centre) looks on at his inauguration ceremony in 2016 as outgoing president Benigno Aquino (right) reviews the troops. Photo: AP](https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/canvas/2024/06/28/5a9b91dc-9218-48ce-b10c-374ef0952f9d_a1723e67.jpg)
Faced with the loss of maritime territory and untold resources within its EEZ, the Philippines has tried various approaches over the years, from legal action to appeasement, military modernisation, and seeking alliances.
![President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr arrives at the Philippines’ South China Sea forces headquarters in Palawan province on June 23. Photo: Presidential Communications Office / Handout via AFP](https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/canvas/2024/06/28/216464e6-0414-45c1-969b-0242ad62bb61_94281ea7.jpg)
A weak link in the chain
The South China Sea has long been a point of contention between the Philippines and China, with two disputed features in particular serving as flashpoints: the Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal. Both are claimed by Manila and Beijing, with the dilapidated Philippine warship BRP Sierra Madre functioning as a military outpost in the former, while the latter is a traditional fishing ground for Filipino fishermen.
Analysts argue that China is exerting particular pressure on the Philippines for a few key reasons.
First, the Philippines’ geographic location is strategically significant, because it, Japan and Taiwan comprise what is known in US foreign policy circles as the “first island chain”, preventing easy access from the Asian mainland to the open Pacific.
China sees the Philippines as a weak link in this chain. Its strategy of “kill the chicken to scare the monkey”, outlined by foreign affairs magazine The Diplomat a decade ago, dictates that it will “go after lesser powers to diminish the role or prevent the involvement of a greater power”.
![A runway in Lal-lo, Cagayan province, one of the EDCA sites in the northern Philippines. Photo: EPA-EFE](https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/canvas/2024/06/28/a8c9e464-a271-4f65-a955-7bd1e164e478_905cfc6b.jpg)
China will use “any means” to achieve its “ultimate objective” of “stopping the EDCA bases from attaining fully operational status”, according to Trillanes, who also helped author a 2012 law to modernise the Philippine military.
All of which leaves the Philippine leadership in something of a quandary.
China is the Philippines’ largest source of imports and trade relations have remained unaffected, so far. But diplomacy between the two has hit a stone wall.
“Every time we sit down with China, it will say there’s nothing to discuss because it has owned the South China Sea since 2,000 years ago,” Carpio said.
![Filipino protesters hold a rally in Makati City on June 14 criticising Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. Public opinion appears to be hardening against China. Photo: EPA-EFE](https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/canvas/2024/06/28/8a935c8e-df3d-429f-9a9f-12521fe5da94_a66cec46.jpg)
The June 17 incident was “a continuation of China’s plan to control the South China Sea”, he said. “That started in 1947 … slowly, as they increased their naval might, they’ve continued to grab and grab.”
What really “aggrieved” Beijing was the four new EDCA sites, according to Filipino businessman and writer Wilson Lee Flores, who supported closer relations with China under Duterte.
“I think that’s when things went wrong,” he said. “Before then, things were normal, right?”
Philippine public opinion appears to be hardening in tandem with China’s increased assertiveness. Almost three in every four Filipinos now favour the use of military force to uphold the nation’s sovereignty and maritime rights, a March survey by Octa Research found.
![Chinese coastguard personnel are seen armed with knives and other sharp objects at Second Thomas Shoal on June 17. Philippine officials initially characterised the clash as a probable “misunderstanding”. Photo: Armed Forces of the Philippines/Handout via AP](https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/canvas/2024/06/28/2c3f2009-774f-4876-83c7-33ab9d961eb6_fb8fa726.jpg)
On social media, Filipinos were quick to decry the government’s apparent inaction. The Philippine public “expects you to retaliate”, an account calling itself “West Philippine Sea” posted on X on June 23.
![A screengrab of a post on X demanding Manila takes action against China for its aggression in the South China Sea. Photo: X/MalayaIrredenta](https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/canvas/2024/06/28/a4b57d2b-1f22-417b-9582-72dd6aea6960_cc2f657a.jpg)
“We understand that the Military Option may not yet be advisable … [but] do something! Expel a few diplomats … file criminal and civil cases … anything other than NOTHING!”
Maritime law expert Jay Batongbacal, director of the University of the Philippines’ Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea, joined calls for the Chinese ambassador and embassy staff to be expelled.
“We need to send them back,” he said in an interview on GMA Network’s 24 Oras news show.
Filipino paranoia
Both China and the Philippines are playing into the hands of provocateurs and hawks who want nothing more than to see our two countries at loggerheads
But Kaisa founder Ang-See called this a “ridiculous misconception”.
“The evils brought about by Pogos – gambling-related kidnappings, human-trafficking related kidnappings – and the maritime dispute over the West Philippine Sea have all been lumped into one catch-all bogeyman,” she said.
“Both China and the Philippines are playing into the hands of provocateurs and hawks who want nothing more than to see our two countries at loggerheads.”
China’s actions on June 17 were “indefensible”, Ang-see said, but Philippine “public pronouncements should be more discriminating to avoid pouring oil onto the fire”.
![American and Filipino prisoners of war captured by Japanese forces are seen in the Philippines during World War II. A historian drew unsettling parallels between the paranoia surrounding the Pogo industry and WWII. Photo: AP](https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/canvas/2024/06/28/cf44d325-6f55-42e2-8e6a-d6f4db56b0c5_35b975b0.jpg)
University of the Philippines history professor emeritus Ricardo Jose drew unsettling parallels between the paranoia surrounding the Pogo industry and the lead-up to World War II in the Philippines.
“The stories of Chinese infiltrators remind me of what happened back then,” Jose said. “The Japanese sent some officers here as spies before the war disguised as salesmen … Some local Japanese were hired as intelligence sources too.”
“If we have the world on our side, China cannot do what it wants,” Carpio told This Week in Asia. “That’s why we need to get the rest of the world to support us here, and I think they will … China in the long run is in a no-win situation.”
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