Philippines’ dithering over South China Sea clash fuelled by US doubts
- Dithering official statements reflect not only Philippine fears of unwanted escalation but also, crucially, doubts over US defence commitments
The dithering and seemingly confused statements from Philippine officials, however, are a reflection of fears of unwanted escalation and, crucially, doubts over the extent of America’s commitment to come to the country’s aid.
The problem is that Washington has a long history of equivocating on its defence obligations to the Philippines. In the early 1970s, US secretary of state Henry Kissinger pressed for a policy of strategic ambiguity by raising “substantial doubts that [a Philippine] military contingent on island in the Spratly group would come within protection” of the Mutual Defence Treaty.
The treaty “may apply in event of attack on [Philippine] forces deployed to third countries”, he clarified, although this would be “fundamentally different from [a] case where deployment is for purpose of enlarging Philippine territory”.
The 1951 treaty is itself riddled with ambiguity, since it only obliges Washington to come to its Southeast Asian ally’s help “to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes”.
America’s unreliability has begun to alienate the Filipino people. An authoritative survey conducted in late 2016, just months after the election of Beijing-friendly president Rodrigo Duterte, showed that half of the respondents either disagreed (17 per cent) or were undecided (33 per cent) when asked if “security/defence relations with the US have been beneficial to the Philippines” in the context of the South China Sea disputes. If anything, a significant number of those surveyed backed Duterte’s pursuit of warming defence ties with China and Russia.
In fairness, this gap has been identified by both Philippine and US officials. Last year, legal experts at the Indo-Pacific Command recommended that the Mutual Defence Treaty should also apply to the “illegal use of force” which “could also include non-kinetic attacks that result in death, injury, damage or destruction of persons or objects”.
Washington may also need to consider the transfer of defence assets such as a landing craft and high-speed boats to boost the Philippine patrol and resupply capacity. Ultimately, the two allies might consider joint patrols and resupply missions, with US warships and drones on the horizon.
For now, what’s clear is America’s credibility as both an ally and regional leader is under growing question, thanks to China’s efforts to alter the status quo based on its expansive claims in one of the world’s most important seascapes.
Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based academic and author of Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for Western Pacific, and the forthcoming Duterte’s Rise