UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan reviews the honour guard during a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 30. Photo: EPA-EFE
Opinion
Emil Avdaliani
Emil Avdaliani
How the UAE is leveraging ties with China for its own security needs
China’s diplomatic outreach to the United Arab Emirates has unprecedented geopolitical implications even beyond the Middle East
Bilateral relations between China and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are changing in scope, with recent developments reflecting a shifting balance of power, in which the United States is no longer seen by Arab Gulf countries as a long-term security shield.
Earlier this month, China released a joint statement with the UAE, expressing support for a peaceful resolution of a dispute regarding three islands – Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lessen Tunb – that have been under Iranian control since 1971, days before the UAE was founded as an independent country.
Iran reacted by summoning the Chinese ambassador to Tehran. This is not the first time China has expressed support for negotiations to resolve the dispute. In response to a similar statement released in 2022, Tehran also called in Beijing’s ambassador. Ebrahim Raisi expressed “dissatisfaction and complaints” over the 2022 statement. Chinese President Xi Jinping then invited Raisi to Beijing, perhaps to smooth things over.
For China, the UAE might be coming ahead of its relations with Iran. China-Iran relations have seen major progress in the recent years, with Beijing pledging investments and trade growth. Yet, the relationship is uneven, with Iran partly relying on China for increased oil sales and support in the international arena.
Meanwhile, China’s support for a peaceful resolution over the disputed islands fits into its plan for increasing engagement with the Gulf region. A pragmatic China seeks closer ties to maintain a balancing between competing Middle East powers.
China reaffirming its stance on the three islands came in the wake of UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahyan’s visit to Beijing just days earlier. Relations between the two countries have developed into a strategic partnership.
A person walks beneath photovoltaic panels at a solar project south of Abu Dhabi on November 13, 2023. Photo: AFP
This is evident in the scale of bilateral trade, as well as cooperation in sectors such as infrastructure, education, tourism, security and finance. Last year, the Chinese and UAE central banks renewed a US$4.9 billion currency swap deal.
The UAE is also interested in cooperation with Chinese firms to advance renewable energy. A major Chinese contractor has been working on the world’s biggest solar energy project in the UAE. However, artificial intelligence (AI) is where bilateral cooperation might be the most impactful, especially given the UAE’s relations with the US.
Chinese companies such as Alibaba and Huawei have been involved in the UAE’s infrastructure- and 5G-related projects, though they remain significantly behind the presence of Western companies like Microsoft.
It’s important to note that increased cooperation between China and the UAE may affect Abu Dhabi’s relations with the US, which is worried about Chinese influence in the region. If China were to a establish a military outpost in the UAE, as the US believes, it could warrant American punishment. After all, negotiations on a deal to acquire advanced F-35 fighter jets fell through over concerns about Abu Dhabi working with Huawei on 5G technology.
Exhibitors stand at the Huawei section of the World Future Energy Summit 2020 in Abu Dhabi on January 13, 2020. Photo: EPA-EFE
During Sheikh Mohamed’s visit, both sides also talked about sharing their experience with defence and security to advance bilateral military coordination. The ambitious plans follow practical steps the two sides have already taken. Last August, the UAE and China held their first air force drills. The two sides also signed a deal that allows the UAE to purchase Chinese fighter jets.
Bilateral ties have indeed been building for years. A US$11 billion project between Beijing Daxing International Airport and Dubai’s Emaar Properties that includes residential and recreational amenities was signed in 2019. More recently, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company have reportedly struck a deal with state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corporation.
The wider geopolitical picture helps to explain the shift in Beijing’s engagement with Abu Dhabi. The Gulf region, especially UAE and Saudi Arabia, have been in the process of reconsidering how to conduct relations with the US. Washington has long been seen as a security guarantor to the region. This has been changing with the US somewhat shifting its attention to Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific region, prompting some countries in the Gulf to rethink relations with the US.
Meanwhile, China now presents an effective counterbalance, which allows countries like the UAE to pursue a multifaceted foreign policy. Navigating between several big actors requires diplomatic skill, as well as genuine economic and political influence – exactly what the UAE possesses.
US President Joe Biden speaks with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan at the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor meeting on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in New Delhi, India on September 9, 2023. Photo: EPA-EFE/Handout
The UAE will surely abstain from ditching the US altogether or even scaling down bilateral relations. Instead, it can use the “China card” to extract greater military and economic cooperation with the US, similar to what Saudi Arabia does when it tries to reach a mega deal, such as a formal US security guarantee in exchange for normalising ties with Israel.
The UAE’s increasing gaze towards China also fits into the growing trend of multipolarity and the shift towards a more transactional approach in world affairs. For the UAE, China is a simpler partner, which is not interested in human rights issues or promoting a discourse that splits the world into democracies and autocracies.
Sensing the opportunities emanating from UAE’s dissatisfaction with the US, Beijing will try to evade being dragged into direct competition with Washington because it will push Gulf countries to make radical foreign policy choices that complicate their diplomatic balancing acts.
In an increasingly multipolar world, the attraction which holds the UAE and China close is mutual. Moreover, the UAE’s multifaceted foreign policy also provides a glimpse into the emerging global order.
Emil Avdaliani is a professor of international relations at European University in Tbilisi, Georgia, and a scholar of silk roads
